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Recent press reports have amplified the growing anxiety many Americans feel about their household finances, as well as the anxiety many hoteliers feel about the potential impact this uncertainty may have on Americans' future travel behavior. Clearly, there's mounting evidence that storm clouds are forming on the horizon, as chronicled by the decline in consumer confidence just reported by the Conference Board: down to an indexed value of 75 (against a baseline of 100 established in 1985), the lowest number recorded in the last five years.
 Percentage of U.S. households planning to take one or more overnight trips by number of trips during next six months–2007 |
Nevertheless, there is some encouraging news from our travelhorizons survey series (co-authored with the Travel Industry Assn.): The percentage of U.S. households planning at least one overnight trip during the next six months remains robust. As reflected in the graph at right, travel intentions in 2007 peaked during the spring (April), as one would expect because of the traditional planning period for summer vacations. The percentage of households planning at least one trip thereafter declined nine percentage points, yet this percentage has remained steady since that time, notwithstanding the spate of negative publicity about the rising price of gasoline, the three increases in airfares invoked by the major domestic airlines since the first of the year and continued reverberations from the meltdown of the sub-prime mortgage market.
Alas, we have confirmation, yet again, that Americans view vacations as a birthright.
On an equally encouraging note, the actual number of overnight trips planned by Americans as of December 2007 compared very favorably with the same number of trips planned as of June 2007 before much of the negative press about the impact of the financial uncertainty that prevailed during the intervening months appeared.
For more information on travelhorizons, please visit the Publications section of www.ypartnership.com.
Peter Yesawich is chairman and c.e.o. of Ypartnership. He can be reached at Peter.Yesawich@ypartnership.com.
